Polymarket
No written verdict yet. Here is what commenters said.
Why people recommend it
“a glance at polymarket or kalshi is often enough to know whether something is actually happening”
“Nobody says this on assumption. It's well-evidenced.”
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“Polymarket especially is a great source of insider traded information”
“I like browsing polymarket”
“there is no issue with using polymarket to get the odds on anything”
Caveats and dissent
“everything else about them is so unethical and so destructive to the commons”
“I don't know much about Polymarket but iirc Kalshi is only your broker and exchange, so dealing with them is materially less risky in my mind.”
Show 2 more
“much like Polymarket's fake rule that Americans aren't allowed to use it.”
“Polymarket indirectly drove someone to murder another person, as they could profit from it.”
Often compared with
Threads where it came up
- Uncovering Insiders and Alpha on Polymarket with AI 6 mentions
- Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence 4 mentions
- Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets 4 mentions
- We Haven't Seen the Worst of What Gambling and Prediction Markets Will Do 4 mentions
- Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story 4 mentions
- They Looked Like They Were Getting Rich on Polymarket–But None of It Was Real 2 mentions
Data: polymarket.json. Quotes are verbatim; the verdict and theme labels are written by a model from these comments, and every clause links to its sources.
All comments 40
“there's a question [0] involving new Meta model naming. Polymarket themselves are providing an API”
“everything else about them is so unethical and so destructive to the commons”
Author here, yhis is the third post in a series - the retro and the post-mortem are the story of how it made ~$5k and then bled a chunk back. If you'd like to read through the brief article I have for this release, feel free to have a look: https://kacho.io/open-sourcing-my-polymarket-bot Honest framing so nobody feels short-changed - it's the retired Python version (I run a Rust rewrite now), and the scrapers that k
1. Kalshi doesn't use UMA. 2. Yeah spend more money to get UMA votes to decide controversial decisions. That's how polymarket works. I have a lot of experience with similar systems, that's what we call rigging the election. Imagine a handful of anonymous UMA wallets dominate Polymarket’s contested resolutions, and reporters have linked some deciding wallets to positions in the very markets they judged. :But you don't
“Coinbase CEO said all the words on Polymarket”
“I don't know much about Polymarket but iirc Kalshi is only your broker and exchange, so dealing with them is materially less risky in my mind.”
I made an article a day back how Polymarket is not exactly fair when it comes to market resolution (https://omarabid.com/polymarket-bet/) They actually don’t decide on market outcomes, they outsource that to UMA which is as opaque as it can get. Consider the probabilities in polymarket as the prob. of the polymarket market itself outcomes rather than reality.
“At the very least, Polymarket is more liquid”
“much like Polymarket's fake rule that Americans aren't allowed to use it.”
“they have paid out for assassinations in the past”
“Polymarket indirectly drove someone to murder another person, as they could profit from it.”
> illegal globally I would replace them with https://manifold.markets/ or maybe heavily regulate them. they do have practical utility in forecasting
Yup, that idea has been around for a while: https://cryptome.org/ap.htm
“Everyone seems to rely on Polymarket now, which is a much more cynical way to aggregate polling data”
“But I do have an issue with Polymarket, Kalshi, etc, using bullshit language”
Technically they are betting exchanges. But they also probably have contracts with some of the big sportsbooks to provide liquidity too making them also kinda a sportsbook. I used to work at a betting exchange and we did have liquidity partners that made sure to increase the liquidity on our exchange.
“500k+ of volume on Polymarket[0] had Elon losing”
“They don't work.”
“a glance at polymarket or kalshi is often enough to know whether something is actually happening”
“at least it's not polymarket”
“Polymarket actually wrote an article about "copycat trading"”
“On Polymarket, $60m has been wagered on "Will Jesus return before 2027"”
“Users absolutely can propose markets”
“You forget that Polymarket is just a casino, and the house always wins.”
“Polymarket will subsidize you to do this”
“Maybe you’re not using the US entry path.”
“I posted a pickup on taout to debate polymarket in general.”
“What do you think of adding prediction market data to the indication?”
“Polymarket publishes accuracy statistics”
“Nobody says this on assumption. It's well-evidenced.”
“to place bets on the Polymarket prediction site”
“Polymarket doesn't pay interest on deposits.”
“Polymarket largely did not have fees in 2025”
“Polymarket especially is a great source of insider traded information”
“Polymarket odds ain't got nothing on that.”
“they have a decentralized crypto-based system where people propose a resolution to the bet, then token holders vote.”
“there was a bet placed on polymarket on maduros capture mere hours before the raid were conducted”
“I like browsing polymarket”
“I expect prediction markets will come to be thought of as slimy gambling dens ridden with fraud”
“a suspected Google insider who made $1.15M on Polymarket”