{"slug": "polymarket", "name": "Polymarket", "category": "other", "category_name": "Other software", "description": "", "recommenders": 6, "commenters": 55, "warners": 26, "score": -11.854, "rising": -1.96, "first": "2025-11-19", "latest": "2026-10-09", "why": "there is no issue with using polymarket to get the odds on anything", "why_is_quote": true, "has_verdict": false, "sentiment": {"recommend": 6, "neutral": 21, "compare": 2, "warn": 26}, "spark": [0, 0, 1, 1, 3, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0], "listed": true, "loved": [], "caveat": "", "short_quote": "there is no issue with using polymarket to get the odds on anything", "kind": "", "icon": true, "domain": "polymarket.com", "github_repo": null, "official_url": "https://polymarket.com", "pricing": "", "aliases": ["Polymarket"], "verdict": null, "praise": [{"label": "", "summary": "", "quotes": [{"id": 770879216, "item_id": 48179951, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48179951", "by": "jcfrei", "date": "2026-05-18", "stance": "recommend", "quote": "a glance at polymarket or kalshi is often enough to know whether something is actually happening", "excerpt": "I'm surprised prediction markets don't get more support here on HN. There's a lot of benefit in having a probability estimate for various kinds of events. One example of many: https://polymarket.com/event/may-2026-temperature-increase-c These markets are a straightforward way to cut through all the noise of the current media conglomerates. Rather than getting bombarded by inflated headlines a glance at polymarket or ", "context": "", "use_case": "Prediction markets", "switched_from": "", "story": "Utah lawmakers form united front in push to ban prediction markets"}, {"id": 760677888, "item_id": 47542368, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47542368", "by": "kqr", "date": "2026-03-27", "stance": "recommend", "quote": "Nobody says this on assumption. It's well-evidenced.", "excerpt": "Nobody says this on assumption. It's well-evidenced. https://polymarket.com/accuracy https://www.metaculus.com/questions/track-record/", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "We Haven't Seen the Worst of What Gambling and Prediction Markets Will Do"}, {"id": 758716324, "item_id": 47419770, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47419770", "by": "muggermuch", "date": "2026-03-17", "stance": "recommend", "quote": "Polymarket especially is a great source of insider traded information", "excerpt": "> So someone monitoring Polymarket could have reached the same conclusion? Maybe? If they are professionally trading prediction markets, I'm pretty sure that would be the case. Polymarket especially is a great source of insider traded information, as you pointed out. We do near realtime tracking of most major markets, plus X accounts that Soros identifies as being important. The system also composes search queries pe", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Show HN: Soros \u2013 AI for geopolitical macro investing"}, {"id": 758404304, "item_id": 47400269, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47400269", "by": "eknkc", "date": "2026-03-16", "stance": "recommend", "quote": "I like browsing polymarket", "excerpt": "I believe this is the bet in question: https://polymarket.com/event/iran-strikes-israel-on This caught my attention today as it was in dispute and there were a lot of comments (moslty angry). I like browsing polymarket (never placed a bet myself but it is fun to see the prices). Always thought this would kill someone someday..", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story"}, {"id": 754081312, "item_id": 47130082, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47130082", "by": "FergusArgyll", "date": "2026-02-23", "stance": "recommend", "quote": "there is no issue with using polymarket to get the odds on anything", "excerpt": "> equally disdainful from the same moralistic standpoint that gambling is banned from I don't know which religion/s you're familiar with but I bet you don't know the reason gambling is prohibited in Judaism. It doesn't carry the moral stench you think it does. I've been studying Talmudic law for a very very long time and am confident there is no issue with using polymarket to get the odds on anything. > The odds you ", "context": "", "use_case": "getting market odds", "switched_from": "", "story": "Uncovering Insiders and Alpha on Polymarket with AI"}]}], "caveats": [{"label": "", "summary": "", "quotes": [{"id": 798373520, "item_id": 49898345, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49898345", "by": "meowface", "date": "2026-09-29", "stance": "warn", "quote": "everything else about them is so unethical and so destructive to the commons", "excerpt": "Prediction markets seemed like a possible exception to the rule that anything to do with betting is always a scourge on the commons, but those companies quickly realized sports gambling is the best way to rake in cash, so they all converge on it. I am one of the very few people in the United States who actually does still earnestly believe prediction markets do in principle serve an immense social good that can't be ", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "DraftKings is using AI to behaviorally target chronic gamblers"}, {"id": 778262016, "item_id": 48641376, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48641376", "by": "maxbond", "date": "2026-06-23", "stance": "warn", "quote": "I don't know much about Polymarket but iirc Kalshi is only your broker and exchange, so dealing with them is materially less risky in my mind.", "excerpt": "As far as I know it is \"P2P\", a continuous double sided auction like any proper exchange. If there's something fishy going on with the order book I do not personally know about it. (I don't think there is but I'm also not going to stick my neck out for them.) https://docs.polymarket.com/concepts/prices-orderbook https://help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823828-the-orderbook Tl;Dr there's an order book with prices set by ", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Polymarket's viral videos showed people winning big, but the bets were fake"}, {"id": 772866256, "item_id": 48304141, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48304141", "by": "SpicyLemonZest", "date": "2026-05-27", "stance": "warn", "quote": "much like Polymarket's fake rule that Americans aren't allowed to use it.", "excerpt": "What Polymarket says on the topic (https://integrity.polymarket.com/) is that they do not surface insider information and you mustn't trade if you have any. Because the prediction market community is filled with liars and fraudsters, of course, it does seem to be common knowledge that this restriction isn't meant to be taken seriously, much like Polymarket's fake rule that Americans aren't allowed to use it. But once", "context": "", "use_case": "Prediction market", "switched_from": "", "story": "Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term"}, {"id": 772576432, "item_id": 48286027, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48286027", "by": "embedding-shape", "date": "2026-05-26", "stance": "warn", "quote": "Polymarket indirectly drove someone to murder another person, as they could profit from it.", "excerpt": "> How do I cause someone to die using Kalshi or Polymarket, specifically, also without being caught? Assuming you get away with the murder, guessing that's not the part you're asking about, a concrete example: https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election, bunch of people on that list, surely many of them are like the typical European politician, mostly without assassination protection most of the ti", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence"}]}], "who": [], "tags": [], "use_cases": ["prediction market", "prediction markets", "election prediction", "prediction market trading", "prediction market betting", "getting market odds"], "compared": [{"slug": "kalshi", "name": "Kalshi", "co": 11, "switched_from": 0, "switched_to": 0}, {"slug": "manifold", "name": "Manifold", "co": 2, "switched_from": 0, "switched_to": 0}], "makers": [], "threads": [{"url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47091557", "title": "Uncovering Insiders and Alpha on Polymarket with AI", "mentions": 6}, {"url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48279316", "title": "Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence", "mentions": 4}, {"url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47753472", "title": "Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets", "mentions": 4}, {"url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47534848", "title": "We Haven't Seen the Worst of What Gambling and Prediction Markets Will Do", "mentions": 4}, {"url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47397822", "title": "Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story", "mentions": 4}, {"url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48614715", "title": "They Looked Like They Were Getting Rich on Polymarket\u2013But None of It Was Real", "mentions": 2}], "sentiment_by_month": {"2025-11": {"neutral": 1}, "2025-12": {"neutral": 1}, "2026-01": {"warn": 3, "neutral": 3, "recommend": 1}, "2026-02": {"warn": 3, "neutral": 1, "recommend": 1}, "2026-03": {"warn": 7, "recommend": 3, "neutral": 1, "compare": 1}, "2026-04": {"neutral": 6, "warn": 1}, "2026-05": {"neutral": 5, "warn": 8, "recommend": 1}, "2026-06": {"compare": 1, "warn": 3, "neutral": 1}, "2026-07": {"neutral": 1}, "2026-08": {}, "2026-09": {"warn": 1}, "2026-10": {"neutral": 1}}, "quotes": [{"id": 800375248, "item_id": 50023453, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=50023453", "by": "rpozarickij", "date": "2026-10-09", "stance": "neutral", "quote": "there's a question [0] involving new Meta model naming. Polymarket themselves are providing an API", "excerpt": "I've just checked what's happening on Polymarket right now and there's a question [0] involving new Meta model naming. Polymarket themselves are providing an API, so one could theoretically proactively scan/crawl common places where such a name might inadvertently be included (Hugging Face, GitHub, docs, etc) before a public announcement. I wouldn't be surprised if someone is already doing that. [0] https://polymarke", "context": "", "use_case": "prediction market", "switched_from": "", "story": "Nobel Peace Prize for 2026 to Navanethem Pillay"}, {"id": 798373520, "item_id": 49898345, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49898345", "by": "meowface", "date": "2026-09-29", "stance": "warn", "quote": "everything else about them is so unethical and so destructive to the commons", "excerpt": "Prediction markets seemed like a possible exception to the rule that anything to do with betting is always a scourge on the commons, but those companies quickly realized sports gambling is the best way to rake in cash, so they all converge on it. I am one of the very few people in the United States who actually does still earnestly believe prediction markets do in principle serve an immense social good that can't be ", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "DraftKings is using AI to behaviorally target chronic gamblers"}, {"id": 783920352, "item_id": 48995022, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48995022", "by": "kachoio", "date": "2026-07-21", "stance": "neutral", "quote": "", "excerpt": "Author here, yhis is the third post in a series - the retro and the post-mortem are the story of how it made ~$5k and then bled a chunk back. If you'd like to read through the brief article I have for this release, feel free to have a look: https://kacho.io/open-sourcing-my-polymarket-bot Honest framing so nobody feels short-changed - it's the retired Python version (I run a Rust rewrite now), and the scrapers that k", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Show HN: Polymm \u2013 the Polymarket market-making bot behind my $5k wallet"}, {"id": 778340672, "item_id": 48646292, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48646292", "by": "minraws", "date": "2026-06-23", "stance": "warn", "quote": "", "excerpt": "1. Kalshi doesn't use UMA. 2. Yeah spend more money to get UMA votes to decide controversial decisions. That's how polymarket works. I have a lot of experience with similar systems, that's what we call rigging the election. Imagine a handful of anonymous UMA wallets dominate Polymarket\u2019s contested resolutions, and reporters have linked some deciding wallets to positions in the very markets they judged. :But you don't", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "They Looked Like They Were Getting Rich on Polymarket\u2013But None of It Was Real"}, {"id": 778300192, "item_id": 48643762, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48643762", "by": "trumpdong", "date": "2026-06-23", "stance": "neutral", "quote": "Coinbase CEO said all the words on Polymarket", "excerpt": "Coinbase CEO said all the words on Polymarket at end of Q3 earnings call: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:2eb9f98ac094b:0-coinbase-ceo-s-bizarre-final-words-on-q3-call-just-paid-off-a-lucky-few/", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Polymarket's viral videos showed people winning big, but the bets were fake"}, {"id": 778262016, "item_id": 48641376, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48641376", "by": "maxbond", "date": "2026-06-23", "stance": "warn", "quote": "I don't know much about Polymarket but iirc Kalshi is only your broker and exchange, so dealing with them is materially less risky in my mind.", "excerpt": "As far as I know it is \"P2P\", a continuous double sided auction like any proper exchange. If there's something fishy going on with the order book I do not personally know about it. (I don't think there is but I'm also not going to stick my neck out for them.) https://docs.polymarket.com/concepts/prices-orderbook https://help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823828-the-orderbook Tl;Dr there's an order book with prices set by ", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Polymarket's viral videos showed people winning big, but the bets were fake"}, {"id": 778249728, "item_id": 48640608, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48640608", "by": "csomar", "date": "2026-06-22", "stance": "warn", "quote": "", "excerpt": "I made an article a day back how Polymarket is not exactly fair when it comes to market resolution (https://omarabid.com/polymarket-bet/) They actually don\u2019t decide on market outcomes, they outsource that to UMA which is as opaque as it can get. Consider the probabilities in polymarket as the prob. of the polymarket market itself outcomes rather than reality.", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "They Looked Like They Were Getting Rich on Polymarket\u2013But None of It Was Real"}, {"id": 777122320, "item_id": 48570145, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48570145", "by": "networked", "date": "2026-06-17", "stance": "compare", "quote": "At the very least, Polymarket is more liquid", "excerpt": "Interesting trend. I have found a short article about it: https://www.odditycentral.com/news/south-koreas-fake-online-stores-help-shopping-addicts-save-money.html. It seems nothing long-form has been written about it in English yet. There is an overlap between Manifold and Polymarket/Kalshi. At the very least, Polymarket is more liquid, which creates opportunities for arbitrage and incentives for Manifold users to fo", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "RFC 10008: The HTTP Query Method"}, {"id": 772866256, "item_id": 48304141, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48304141", "by": "SpicyLemonZest", "date": "2026-05-27", "stance": "warn", "quote": "much like Polymarket's fake rule that Americans aren't allowed to use it.", "excerpt": "What Polymarket says on the topic (https://integrity.polymarket.com/) is that they do not surface insider information and you mustn't trade if you have any. Because the prediction market community is filled with liars and fraudsters, of course, it does seem to be common knowledge that this restriction isn't meant to be taken seriously, much like Polymarket's fake rule that Americans aren't allowed to use it. But once", "context": "", "use_case": "Prediction market", "switched_from": "", "story": "Google employee charged with $1M Polymarket insider trading bet on search term"}, {"id": 772595473, "item_id": 48287217, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48287217", "by": "burkaman", "date": "2026-05-26", "stance": "neutral", "quote": "they have paid out for assassinations in the past", "excerpt": "I can't find any evidence that Polymarket has a rule like this, and they have paid out for assassinations in the past: https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-december-31-2026", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence"}, {"id": 772576432, "item_id": 48286027, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48286027", "by": "embedding-shape", "date": "2026-05-26", "stance": "warn", "quote": "Polymarket indirectly drove someone to murder another person, as they could profit from it.", "excerpt": "> How do I cause someone to die using Kalshi or Polymarket, specifically, also without being caught? Assuming you get away with the murder, guessing that's not the part you're asking about, a concrete example: https://polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election, bunch of people on that list, surely many of them are like the typical European politician, mostly without assassination protection most of the ti", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence"}, {"id": 772533408, "item_id": 48283338, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48283338", "by": "sometimelurker", "date": "2026-05-26", "stance": "warn", "quote": "", "excerpt": "> illegal globally I would replace them with https://manifold.markets/ or maybe heavily regulate them. they do have practical utility in forecasting", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence"}, {"id": 772514848, "item_id": 48282178, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48282178", "by": "kilroy123", "date": "2026-05-26", "stance": "warn", "quote": "", "excerpt": "Yup, that idea has been around for a while: https://cryptome.org/ap.htm", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence"}, {"id": 771283904, "item_id": 48205244, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48205244", "by": "Festro", "date": "2026-05-20", "stance": "warn", "quote": "Everyone seems to rely on Polymarket now, which is a much more cynical way to aggregate polling data", "excerpt": "Not from the USA, but I used the site to keep an eye on US politics. 538, named for the combined number of senators, representatives, and electors in the US, was a political journalism site. It used polls and data to ground its articles and opinions. Largely helmed by Nate Silver for a large portion of its run, until he left. It got 49/50 states correct in the 2008 presidential election which catapulted it to fame. I", "context": "", "use_case": "election prediction", "switched_from": "", "story": "Ask HN: Sorry, what Was FiveThirtyEight?"}, {"id": 771217025, "item_id": 48201064, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48201064", "by": "kube-system", "date": "2026-05-19", "stance": "warn", "quote": "But I do have an issue with Polymarket, Kalshi, etc, using bullshit language", "excerpt": "> as opposed to trying to explain why betting on the Super Bowl on Kalshi is somehow different than making the same bet on DraftKings. I think the answer to that is also the same: if they're the same thing, and both are gambling, then Kalshi should have to be subject to gaming regulations and inspections the same as DraftKings is. Gaming is highly regulated even where it is legal. Personally I don't have an issue wit", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets"}, {"id": 771216480, "item_id": 48201030, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48201030", "by": "jeltz", "date": "2026-05-19", "stance": "neutral", "quote": "", "excerpt": "Technically they are betting exchanges. But they also probably have contracts with some of the big sportsbooks to provide liquidity too making them also kinda a sportsbook. I used to work at a betting exchange and we did have liquidity partners that made sure to increase the liquidity on our exchange.", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets"}, {"id": 771093392, "item_id": 48193337, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48193337", "by": "unholiness", "date": "2026-05-19", "stance": "neutral", "quote": "500k+ of volume on Polymarket[0] had Elon losing", "excerpt": "I'm having a hard time squaring this view with the prediction markets. 500k+ of volume on Polymarket[0] had Elon losing at only even odds until March, 2:1 until May 15th, and 3:1 before the verdict dropped. It seems to have been widely reported from the start[1] and throughout[2] that the statute of limitations was a key thing Musk's team had to prove. If it was so clear, why did people think this case had legs? [0] ", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Elon Musk has lost his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI"}, {"id": 770880176, "item_id": 48180011, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48180011", "by": "jerf", "date": "2026-05-18", "stance": "warn", "quote": "They don't work.", "excerpt": "They don't work. They only work if all the participants in prediction markets don't notice their incentive to cheat the market. One example of many: https://moneywise.com/investing/cryptocurrency/polymarket-rigged-hair-dryer-weather-bets-paris A market that only works as long as participants in the market also pretend that they aren't in a market is nonfunctional. Let all reasoning be silent when experience gainsays ", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Utah lawmakers form united front in push to ban prediction markets"}, {"id": 770879216, "item_id": 48179951, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48179951", "by": "jcfrei", "date": "2026-05-18", "stance": "recommend", "quote": "a glance at polymarket or kalshi is often enough to know whether something is actually happening", "excerpt": "I'm surprised prediction markets don't get more support here on HN. There's a lot of benefit in having a probability estimate for various kinds of events. One example of many: https://polymarket.com/event/may-2026-temperature-increase-c These markets are a straightforward way to cut through all the noise of the current media conglomerates. Rather than getting bombarded by inflated headlines a glance at polymarket or ", "context": "", "use_case": "Prediction markets", "switched_from": "", "story": "Utah lawmakers form united front in push to ban prediction markets"}, {"id": 768628945, "item_id": 48039309, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48039309", "by": "2ndorderthought", "date": "2026-05-06", "stance": "warn", "quote": "at least it's not polymarket", "excerpt": "I love steam. I have a lot of concerns with a lot of the companies shuffling billions around. But not steam. They treat everyone fair. The gambling thing is whack but at least it's not polymarket.", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Valve releases Steam Controller CAD files under Creative Commons license"}, {"id": 768159440, "item_id": 48009965, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48009965", "by": "alexpotato", "date": "2026-05-04", "stance": "neutral", "quote": "Polymarket actually wrote an article about \"copycat trading\"", "excerpt": "> I had a thesis two months ago that you could detect predictors with insider knowledge and ride their coat tails and spent some amount of time staring at the data and running some ML algos to detect them. Polymarket actually wrote an article about \"copycat trading\": https://news.polymarket.com/p/copycat", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Why Almost Everyone Loses\u2013Except a Few Sharks\u2013On Prediction Markets"}, {"id": 767675712, "item_id": 47979732, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47979732", "by": "aorloff", "date": "2026-05-01", "stance": "neutral", "quote": "On Polymarket, $60m has been wagered on \"Will Jesus return before 2027\"", "excerpt": "On Polymarket, $60m has been wagered on \"Will Jesus return before 2027\" https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-before-2027", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Apocalypse Early Warning System"}, {"id": 765122368, "item_id": 47820148, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47820148", "by": "cwillu", "date": "2026-04-18", "stance": "neutral", "quote": "Users absolutely can propose markets", "excerpt": "https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364541-how-are-markets-created Users absolutely can propose markets", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war"}, {"id": 764222064, "item_id": 47763879, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47763879", "by": "Lockal", "date": "2026-04-14", "stance": "warn", "quote": "You forget that Polymarket is just a casino, and the house always wins.", "excerpt": "You forget that Polymarket is just a casino, and the house always wins. For example, recent events show that any bet can be selectively disputed by arbitrary reason (\"we found insiders\", \"we found this immoral/illegal\", etc.). And for perpetual events - there is not a single week without a hack (https://www.web3isgoinggreat.com/)", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets"}, {"id": 764205472, "item_id": 47762842, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47762842", "by": "thaumasiotes", "date": "2026-04-14", "stance": "neutral", "quote": "Polymarket will subsidize you to do this", "excerpt": "In fact, Polymarket will subsidize you to do this: https://docs.polymarket.com/market-makers/overview https://docs.polymarket.com/market-makers/maker-rebates", "context": "", "use_case": "Prediction market trading", "switched_from": "", "story": "Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets"}, {"id": 764138560, "item_id": 47758660, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47758660", "by": "infecto", "date": "2026-04-13", "stance": "neutral", "quote": "Maybe you\u2019re not using the US entry path.", "excerpt": "Maybe you\u2019re not using the US entry path. https://polymarket.com/usa But also it\u2019s not illegal for a US citizen even before it was simply not legal for them to do business with US citizens because of lack of kyc", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets"}, {"id": 764090976, "item_id": 47755686, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47755686", "by": "fcpguru", "date": "2026-04-13", "stance": "neutral", "quote": "I posted a pickup on taout to debate polymarket in general.", "excerpt": "I'm looking to go deep into this stuff. https://www.taout.tv/scheduled/d50797bc-e030-4534-8cde-9f1e68be86a0 I posted a pickup on taout to debate polymarket in general.", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets"}, {"id": 763160720, "item_id": 47697545, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47697545", "by": "anonfunction", "date": "2026-04-08", "stance": "neutral", "quote": "What do you think of adding prediction market data to the indication?", "excerpt": "What do you think of adding prediction market data to the indication? So basically there's this: https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-april-30/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-april-30 My approach would be if that jumps up to 90%+ it would change to YES. And if we get into May they have one for then too: https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-t", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Show HN: Is Hormuz Open Yet?"}, {"id": 762092752, "item_id": 47630797, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47630797", "by": "sefrost", "date": "2026-04-03", "stance": "neutral", "quote": "Polymarket publishes accuracy statistics", "excerpt": "Polymarket publishes accuracy statistics https://polymarket.com/accuracy", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Understanding young news audiences at a time of rapid change"}, {"id": 760677888, "item_id": 47542368, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47542368", "by": "kqr", "date": "2026-03-27", "stance": "recommend", "quote": "Nobody says this on assumption. It's well-evidenced.", "excerpt": "Nobody says this on assumption. It's well-evidenced. https://polymarket.com/accuracy https://www.metaculus.com/questions/track-record/", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "We Haven't Seen the Worst of What Gambling and Prediction Markets Will Do"}, {"id": 760630352, "item_id": 47539397, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47539397", "by": "YZF", "date": "2026-03-26", "stance": "warn", "quote": "to place bets on the Polymarket prediction site", "excerpt": "https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/court-idf-reservist-accused-of-using-classified-info-to-bet-on-polymarket-is-air-force-major/ This was just on the news: \"A reservist suspected of using classified information to place bets on the Polymarket prediction site served as a major in the Israeli Air Force, a Tel Aviv Court reveals. The defendant was indicted alongside his alleged accomplice last month on severe ", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "We Haven't Seen the Worst of What Gambling and Prediction Markets Will Do"}, {"id": 760589488, "item_id": 47536843, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47536843", "by": "JumpCrisscross", "date": "2026-03-26", "stance": "warn", "quote": "Polymarket doesn't pay interest on deposits.", "excerpt": "> There are no fees on Polymarket \"Currently, small fees apply to Crypto and Sports markets. Starting March 30, 2026, this will expand to include other categories like Finance, Politics, Economics, Culture, Weather, and Tech\" [1]. More critically, Polymarket doesn't pay interest on deposits. (Kalshi does.) [1] https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364478-trading-fees", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "We Haven't Seen the Worst of What Gambling and Prediction Markets Will Do"}, {"id": 760581217, "item_id": 47536326, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47536326", "by": "firloop", "date": "2026-03-26", "stance": "compare", "quote": "Polymarket largely did not have fees in 2025", "excerpt": "> And now here come the prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, whose combined 2025 revenue came in around $50 billion. Bizarre to call trading volume \"revenue\". Trading fees for Kalshi amounted to about $263 million[0], whereas Polymarket largely did not have fees in 2025 and is turning them on in a few days[1]. [0]: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kalshi-fee-revenue-2025-263-145801350.html [1]: https://th", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "We Haven't Seen the Worst of What Gambling and Prediction Markets Will Do"}, {"id": 758716324, "item_id": 47419770, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47419770", "by": "muggermuch", "date": "2026-03-17", "stance": "recommend", "quote": "Polymarket especially is a great source of insider traded information", "excerpt": "> So someone monitoring Polymarket could have reached the same conclusion? Maybe? If they are professionally trading prediction markets, I'm pretty sure that would be the case. Polymarket especially is a great source of insider traded information, as you pointed out. We do near realtime tracking of most major markets, plus X accounts that Soros identifies as being important. The system also composes search queries pe", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Show HN: Soros \u2013 AI for geopolitical macro investing"}, {"id": 758492608, "item_id": 47405788, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47405788", "by": "names_are_hard", "date": "2026-03-16", "stance": "warn", "quote": "Polymarket odds ain't got nothing on that.", "excerpt": "I live here, I don't need Polymarket to know that there will be missiles tomorrow. In fact, that's why I'm on HN now even though it's just past midnight here. Because it's a well known law of nature that just as I drift off to sleep my phone will violently alert me with this horrid bzzhhh-bzzhhh sound that missiles are incoming. Then I'll turn on the TV, any news channel, and see the \"polygon of uncertainty\" overlaid", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story"}, {"id": 758448560, "item_id": 47403035, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47403035", "by": "Legend2440", "date": "2026-03-16", "stance": "neutral", "quote": "they have a decentralized crypto-based system where people propose a resolution to the bet, then token holders vote.", "excerpt": "No, they have a decentralized crypto-based system where people propose a resolution to the bet, then token holders vote. https://docs.polymarket.com/concepts/resolution", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story"}, {"id": 758447776, "item_id": 47402986, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47402986", "by": "asdff", "date": "2026-03-16", "stance": "warn", "quote": "there was a bet placed on polymarket on maduros capture mere hours before the raid were conducted", "excerpt": "Maybe not directly so clearly, but there is some influence factor for sure. For example we see this with sports betting, at the far end of the spectrum it is literally players or coaches fixing games to satisfy bets. But somewhere in between that overt fraud, there is influence making going on. Submarine stories on ESPN or sports blogs highlighting a players bad shoulder, hurting their perceived value going into a fr", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story"}, {"id": 758404304, "item_id": 47400269, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47400269", "by": "eknkc", "date": "2026-03-16", "stance": "recommend", "quote": "I like browsing polymarket", "excerpt": "I believe this is the bet in question: https://polymarket.com/event/iran-strikes-israel-on This caught my attention today as it was in dispute and there were a lot of comments (moslty angry). I like browsing polymarket (never placed a bet myself but it is fun to see the prices). Always thought this would kill someone someday..", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story"}, {"id": 756677488, "item_id": 47292343, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47292343", "by": "dogmayor", "date": "2026-03-07", "stance": "warn", "quote": "I expect prediction markets will come to be thought of as slimy gambling dens ridden with fraud", "excerpt": "Prediction markets and crypto will continue to ride the wave while this administration is in office. But I expect prediction markets will come to be thought of as slimy gambling dens ridden with fraud no different than crypto. The cancerous \"greed is good/gamble on everything\" attitude prevalent today in America will come crashing down at some point. When? Who knows. The sooner the better. But for now, make sure you ", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Senators Launch Effort Ban Elected Officials Profiting from Prediction Markets"}, {"id": 755446496, "item_id": 47215406, "url": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47215406", "by": "7777777phil", "date": "2026-03-02", "stance": "warn", "quote": "a suspected Google insider who made $1.15M on Polymarket", "excerpt": "This is the third major case in about three months. Before the Iran bets there was a suspected Google insider who made $1.15M on Polymarket (22 of 23 correct bets in 24 hours) and Israeli soldiers criminally charged for monetizing classified intelligence on event contracts. Textbook Akerlof: without enforcement the adverse selection spiral kills these markets before they get a chance to prove useful. I tracked all th", "context": "", "use_case": "", "switched_from": "", "story": "Allegations of insider trading over prediction-market bets tied to Iran conflict"}]}